Xi in Europe: what to expect?
Xi Jinping is visiting the EU for the first time since the pandemic this week. French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting him in Paris today, Monday, together with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. China’s stance on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is expected to play a major role in their talks. Brussels is not on Xi’s itinerary, but he will be visiting Serbia and Hungary.
Nothing but empty promises
Le Figaro warns:
“Europe is only gradually beginning to wake up to this monster, whose aggressiveness is increasingly apparent — through its arms race, its claims in the China Sea, its theft of resources, the international activism of its spies and secret police. For 30 years, the West believed it could win China over to the rules of fair competition. Today, it sees how Beijing massively subsidises its industrial overcapacities before dumping them at low cost on our overly welcoming market. Will Macron be able to secure more than empty promises of ‘reciprocity’? ... The chances are virtually nil, as are the chances of Beijing ending its crucial support for the Russian arms industry.”
A strategic wait-and-see approach
Europe underestimates the threat posed by China, warns sinologist Marie Holzman in Libération:
“Its deceptive neutrality is allowing it to position its pawns for the future: if Russia defeats Ukraine, China’s side will be strengthened and the Taiwan conflict can begin; if Putin’s regime collapses (in the event of its defeat), China will have a free hand in Siberia. ... The stakes are colossal. It’s time our politicians realised this.”
Europe lacks leadership
In a recent interview with The Economist, French President Emmanuel Macron pointed to three existential risks for Europe, one of which was China. Politiken bemoans the lack of resolute action that such strong words would seem to call for:
“Like German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Macron is much better at making speeches and promising change than turning his words into real policies. And that, more than anything else, is the problem: that the EU lacks energetic leaders at such a crucial moment in history, and that the Paris-Berlin axis of the EU is standing idle. Macron’s analyses and ideas are correct. But where is the political power to realise them?”
Macron’s statements go down well in Beijing
Xi wants to use Macron to undermine Europe’s partnership with the US, La Stampa is convinced:
“The positions of the two heads of state lie at opposite ends of the spectrum. Macron is considering sending ground troops to Ukraine, while Xi sees the arms deliveries to Kyiv as ‘pouring petrol on the fire’ and considers sanctions against Moscow illegitimate. However, China is pleased with the French president’s repeated calls for strategic autonomy for the EU and often points out that Macron said during his visit to Beijing in April 2023 that being an ally of the US does not mean being its vassal. Xi wants to build on this to raise potential doubts among European leaders about the appropriateness of the strategic alignment with US foreign policy.”
Divide and conquer
China is doing its utmost to avoid European sanctions, De Standaard observes:
“China has so far dismissed the European accusations regarding an unfavourable balance of trade, dangerous overcapacities and unfair competition as ‘hype’. But internally, Beijing is very worried. And Xi Jinping’s main aim in Paris will be to keep the pressure off by strategically exploiting the EU’s internal divisions. And not just with subsequent visits to countries loyal to Russia, such as Hungary and Serbia. ... Using the classic strategy of ‘divide and conquer’, China is also trying to exploit the strong dependence of many large German export companies on the huge Chinese market.”
Avoid becoming a vassal of China
Jinping will also visit Hungary and Serbia, but Croatia should by no means attempt to emulate these countries’ foreign policy, Jutarnji list advises:
“Budapest sees itself as a gateway to the East, and Serbia believes that China, like the West, will accept its multi-vector foreign policy. Putting aside all strategic issues, the worrying insight is that the Chinese president is visiting two countries that share his supportive stance for the war in Ukraine. ... In view of the global divisions, the only solution for small European states is a strong and unified EU and a strong Nato. Anything else will result in us becoming vassals of Russia and China.”
